Author Topic: Favorable Playoff Scenario  (Read 41048 times)

Offline Wick250

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2016, 11:34:53 PM »
As of today, only two teams that are headed to the playoffs have exceptional defenses: NDSU and YSU.  Should UNI join the party, that would make it three.  A few others probably have good statistics but those are questionable because they play in bad conferences.  Jacksonville State in the OVC comes to mind.  Two highly ranked teams play no defense whatsoever, Eastern Washington and Sam Houston State.

Run the ball, avoid stupid turnovers, and continue to play our normal (exceptional) defense.  We will be a nightmare matchup for many (not all) teams in the tournament that are not our MVFC brethren.

Offline FOOTBALLFEVER

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2016, 03:40:12 AM »
As of today, only two teams that are headed to the playoffs have exceptional defenses: NDSU and YSU.  Should UNI join the party, that would make it three.  A few others probably have good statistics but those are questionable because they play in bad conferences.  Jacksonville State in the OVC comes to mind.  Two highly ranked teams play no defense whatsoever, Eastern Washington and Sam Houston State.

Run the ball, avoid stupid turnovers, and continue to play our normal (exceptional) defense.  We will be a nightmare matchup for many (not all) teams in the tournament that are not our MVFC brethren.
I agree with this post 110%

Offline penguinpower

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #32 on: November 15, 2016, 06:40:30 AM »
As of today, only two teams that are headed to the playoffs have exceptional defenses: NDSU and YSU.  Should UNI join the party, that would make it three.  A few others probably have good statistics but those are questionable because they play in bad conferences.  Jacksonville State in the OVC comes to mind.  Two highly ranked teams play no defense whatsoever, Eastern Washington and Sam Houston State.

Run the ball, avoid stupid turnovers, and continue to play our normal (exceptional) defense.  We will be a nightmare matchup for many (not all) teams in the tournament that are not our MVFC brethren.


As usual, well said Wick.  I was thinking the same thing.  I also think our running game will be a problem for other conference teams as well.

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #33 on: November 15, 2016, 08:13:30 AM »
A Ferrari will never get good gas mileage, seat 4, or cost $12k as the Cobalt either. We all like to think we can afford a Ferrari, but the only way we get one is if it is broken ..this is FCS. Everyone thought NDSU had a Ferrari ...now look ...cannot find someone to take him. They need Ferrari money for a Mustang.

Offline Penguin Nation

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #34 on: November 15, 2016, 08:36:43 AM »
Carson Wentz was/is a Ferrari.  We've got Ferraris too, with the #'s 3, 9 and 11 painted on the hood and doors.

Mays is still on the assembly line, and he may not turn out to be a Ferrari, but I'm pretty sure he's not a Cobalt.  I think he's got potential to be a Porsche 911 Carrera. Davis (pre-concussion) was a Jeep...willing to leave the safety of the garage (pocket) and go off road even if it meant a few dents and scratches.  Bo Pelini is a Abrams tank with an itchy trigger finger.
"These two cats that we played against from Youngstown State were as good of pass rushers as I've seen"

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Offline go guins

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #35 on: November 15, 2016, 09:14:50 AM »
Carson Wentz was/is a Ferrari.  We've got Ferraris too, with the #'s 3, 9 and 11 painted on the hood and doors.

Mays is still on the assembly line, and he may not turn out to be a Ferrari, but I'm pretty sure he's not a Cobalt.  I think he's got potential to be a Porsche 911 Carrera. Davis (pre-concussion) was a Jeep...willing to leave the safety of the garage (pocket) and go off road even if it meant a few dents and scratches.  Bo Pelini is a Abrams tank with an itchy trigger finger.
In the same vein as 3, 9, & 11, I think you have to say NDSU's Nick DeLuca was/is in the same league, as is King Frasier. 
I like the Davis and Pelini analogies, but the Mays is just wishful thinking.  Yes, he is far from a finished project, but we have seen NOTHING to give us encouragement that there is anything more to gain.  Please look at:
 http://www.hudl.com/profile/1215093/nathan-mays  Against very low level competition he is able to run around for what seems like minutes and then throw a "punt" to a wide open receiver.  This is exactly what we have seen in the few occasions he's been on the field this year and NOTHING like what is needed to win in the MVFC.  If you can throw AND run, the running is a great advantage, but if you can't throw, thr running QB isn't enough, even if you are a very good runner, and Ricky and Nate are just OK runners.  They are certainly better than Hunter, but absolutely no Armanti Edwards either.
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Offline Penguin Nation

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #36 on: November 15, 2016, 09:46:42 AM »
Carson Wentz was/is a Ferrari.  We've got Ferraris too, with the #'s 3, 9 and 11 painted on the hood and doors.

Mays is still on the assembly line, and he may not turn out to be a Ferrari, but I'm pretty sure he's not a Cobalt.  I think he's got potential to be a Porsche 911 Carrera. Davis (pre-concussion) was a Jeep...willing to leave the safety of the garage (pocket) and go off road even if it meant a few dents and scratches.  Bo Pelini is a Abrams tank with an itchy trigger finger.
In the same vein as 3, 9, & 11, I think you have to say NDSU's Nick DeLuca was/is in the same league, as is King Frasier. 
I like the Davis and Pelini analogies, but the Mays is just wishful thinking.  Yes, he is far from a finished project, but we have seen NOTHING to give us encouragement that there is anything more to gain.  Please look at:
 http://www.hudl.com/profile/1215093/nathan-mays  Against very low level competition he is able to run around for what seems like minutes and then throw a "punt" to a wide open receiver.  This is exactly what we have seen in the few occasions he's been on the field this year and NOTHING like what is needed to win in the MVFC.  If you can throw AND run, the running is a great advantage, but if you can't throw, thr running QB isn't enough, even if you are a very good runner, and Ricky and Nate are just OK runners.  They are certainly better than Hunter, but absolutely no Armanti Edwards either.

In that vid, Mays was elusive on the run, able to throw accurately on the run, punt, and drain 3 pointers from the corner!  Only Armanti Edwards is Armanti Edwards.  Dude is an FCS legend with IMO the biggest FCS over FBS win  in CFB history.

Removing all emotion, and trying to be objective and looking at apples to apples stats provided by the MVFC, Mays is statistically better than Wells.  He just is.  If anything Wells stats were complied by two very weak teams ( and one strong team), and Mays was complied against stronger MVFC competition....so the stats understate Mays' skill superiority over Wells. 

I'll root for whomever we put at QB, and hope to be wrong, but at some point facts, logic and reason gotta be considered.  This is our first playoff appearance in 10 years, and we lose a ton of talent after this year.  We get one shot at this......let's not blow on myths and feelz.
"These two cats that we played against from Youngstown State were as good of pass rushers as I've seen"

--WVU Head Coach Dana Holgorsen

Offline go guins

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #37 on: November 15, 2016, 11:07:46 AM »
Quote

In that vid, Mays was elusive on the run, able to throw accurately on the run, punt, and drain 3 pointers from the corner!  Only Armanti Edwards is Armanti Edwards.  Dude is an FCS legend with IMO the biggest FCS over FBS win  in CFB history.

Removing all emotion, and trying to be objective and looking at apples to apples stats provided by the MVFC, Mays is statistically better than Wells.  He just is.  If anything Wells stats were complied by two very weak teams ( and one strong team), and Mays was complied against stronger MVFC competition....so the stats understate Mays' skill superiority over Wells. 

I'll root for whomever we put at QB, and hope to be wrong, but at some point facts, logic and reason gotta be considered.  This is our first playoff appearance in 10 years, and we lose a ton of talent after this year.  We get one shot at this......let's not blow on myths and feelz.

You bench Wells for 9 months then dump him in as a starter in 2 MVFC games and use that to judge him against Mays, who's claim to fame was handing off 35 times in a great comeback win?  NEITHER of these is fair.  Yes Mays looks good running around against very low level high school competition, but the passing is pitiful.  By comparison .  http://www.hudl.com/profile/1121794/hunter-wells  Again, this is against slightly better HS competition than Mays, but look at the throws compared to Mays.  We are in the MVFC, those "lame ducks" of Mays are coming back at us!
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 11:08:22 AM by IAA Fan »
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Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #38 on: November 15, 2016, 11:07:59 AM »
Agreed on Mays having potential. Many people did not agree when I brought him up during camp. However, let's remember that all of these QB's were brought in as direct replacements for coach M's offensive scheme followed with Hess. All 4 of them are very much in the same mold. If Montgomery says Mays is not ready, then I trust him.

We had some success running the occasional semi-wildcat plays with Nania/Wells/Hess & I think Montgomery sees the same with Wells and Davis. We do not have any running QB's until Hosick returns. However a Montgomery offense does not really benefit from a rushing QB ...only a scrambling QB. Hess had fantastic pocket ability. Montgomery likes his RB's running the ball, as do I. RB's are used to getting hit regularly. If we have 3 and one goes down ...it is next man up. If a QB goes down, it can never be "next man up". I do not care if there are 3 running QB's on the team. A sharp-crisp piston (new QB) may perform better than one warn, but the new piston changes the entire feel of the engine. A fresh set of plugs (RB's) will at least keep the engine running the same or better. The piston needs a garage and a machine and lots of time to replace (spring, fall camps and early season easy games). We can replace the plugs in the driveway (on the sidelines or during the week).

So you may not agree with the decision to use Wells, but the change requires a lot of work because his parts were warn last year. I too see him improving almost every game so far. He just needs to lose that 1st-throw INT potential. I would like to see a couple of short passes before we go deep. I understand we lose that element of surprise. So I don't know ...above my pay grade.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 11:12:48 AM by IAA Fan »

Offline go guins

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #39 on: November 15, 2016, 11:53:38 AM »
I wish I saw in Mays whatever it is a few of you guys see in Mays.  I see him scrambling around OK, but not so much as an option or read option running QB and I see nothing in his passing ability that makes me optimistic. In my mind, we have 2 or 3 guys back next year and so we have 2 classes to recruit a QB for going forward.
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Offline ysuguins4

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #40 on: November 15, 2016, 12:17:00 PM »
The playoffs might present a chance for the Guins to play their first FCS non-MVFC full scholarship opponent since 2009.  Will be very interesting to see they compare.

Offline go guins

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #41 on: November 15, 2016, 12:21:15 PM »
The playoffs might present a chance for the Guins to play their first FCS non-MVFC full scholarship opponent since 2009.  Will be very interesting to see they compare.
I agree, and IMO that is exactly who the whole FCS and MVFC should be working to schedule. Playing the non or minimal scholarship programs is boring.
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Offline Penguin Nation

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #42 on: November 15, 2016, 12:32:52 PM »
The playoffs might present a chance for the Guins to play their first FCS non-MVFC full scholarship opponent since 2009.  Will be very interesting to see they compare.

Interesting point.

Like many, I dismiss most of the non-MVFC FCS as rubes and slobs, and it's true that the MVFC is ranked even above some G5 conferences, and its not uncommon to get P5 wins and then lose in MVFC play.  But, NDSU, with its great D, was taken to OT twice in OOC FCS play. SDSU was beat by Cal Poly.  It seems like we will play JMU after STFU, and JMU's offense is legendary, and their home crowds I think are ~18K.  It'll be a must win game since my wife is a JMU alum and will mercilessly gloat.

"These two cats that we played against from Youngstown State were as good of pass rushers as I've seen"

--WVU Head Coach Dana Holgorsen

Offline go guins

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #43 on: November 15, 2016, 12:43:27 PM »
Quote

Interesting point.
  It'll be a must win game since my wife is a JMU alum and will mercilessly gloat.

That's a good enough reason for us to give YSU and extra push!! 
However, I should point out, 1. we do NOT yet have a playoff bid in hand.  2. I don't trust any committee to send us a bid with 4 losses. sooooo...  #3, IMO we need to stick to business and beat MSU Saturday afternoon and 4. THEN worry about beating our opponent in the opening round, before JMU is part of our thoughts!
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 04:52:56 PM by IAA Fan »
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Offline penguinpower

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Re: Favorable Playoff Scenario
« Reply #44 on: November 15, 2016, 01:39:45 PM »
There is no point in arguing about which QB should be playing when none of them will improve past their sophomore year anyway.  That is how it has been for the last 7 years.  The QB's lose all of their instincts and previous coaching.