per the Vindy
YOUNGSTOWN — It’s not exactly “win and you’re in” for Youngstown State. In fact, it’s more along the lines of “win just to keep any hope.”
Indeed, following a deflating 25-22 loss to Missouri State last week, the Penguins find themselves on the wrong end of the FCS playoff bubble.
If YSU is to even stay in the conversation at this point, it’s going to need a win in its regular season finale as it hosts Southern Illinois at noon Saturday (ESPN3, 570 AM WKBN).
“Definitely a playoff game,” said YSU tailback Jaleel McLaughlin. “We have to win this game, and that’s our mindset going into this game. We need this game. … We want to do something special for the community, special for YSU, and I think we have everything in our hands to be able to do that.”
It likely will take something special if the Penguins (6-4, 4-3 Missouri Valley) are to earn a bid this season, given the sheer number of six- and seven-win teams in the FCS, many with better resumes than YSU. Then, too, there are 11 automatic qualifiers via conference championships, leaving 13 spots for at-large berths.
Of course, none of that is in YSU’s control, and that’s something head coach Doug Phillips is quick to note.
“We can control one thing, and that’s winning out,” he said. “I’m sure Southern Illinois believes if they win six, (including) beating (FBS-level) Northwestern, that there’s going to be a chance. … They’re going to come in here fighting for the same thing we’re fighting for. To be able to have those types of games, yeah, to me, it’s a home playoff game right now, and loser goes home, loser packs the season and heads to the offseason.”
The Salukis (5-5, 3-4 Missouri Valley) have had a season relatively similar to Youngstown State’s, especially such that it’s been one of streaks. SIU began its season with losses to Incarnate Word (presently ranked No. 5 in the StatsPerform FCS Poll) and Southeast Missouri (No. 17 in the StatsPerform poll), before ripping off five consecutive victories.
Since, the Salukis have dropped three straight to South Dakota, Northern Iowa and North Dakota State, likely knocking them out of the postseason hunt, too.
However, both programs still have plenty to play for. The Penguins would relish the opportunity to finish with seven wins and at least give themselves a shot at a postseason. Plus, ending the season winning five of your last six is a great momentum boost heading into the offseason either way.
Southern Illinois, meanwhile, are fighting to finish above .500 and stem a losing streak to end the year.
If the Penguins are to win their second straight against SIU — YSU won last year’s contest in Carbondale, 35-18 — they’ll have to piece together a complete performance, and that’s something Phillips says he’s still searching for from his team.
“I still don’t think that this (YSU) team — we talk about November performance — I still don’t (think) this team has played its best football yet,” Phillips said. “I’ve seen spurts where we play great defense, I’ve seen spurts where we have great offense and I’ve seen spurts where we have great special teams. But when you get to November, you have to be running on all cylinders, and you have to play your best football.”
That, of course, is what sunk the Penguins at MSU last week, as four trips to the red zone yielded three field goals and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the defense held on nearly all game until a final 13-play, 92-yard touchdown drive put the Bears ahead for good. On special teams, Colt McFadden had a strong showing, but the kickoff unit surrendured two lengthy returns that directly resulted in MSU touchdowns.
Those lapses will need to be avoided against an SIU team that features the Missouri Valley’s second-best passing unit with quarterback Nic Baker and receiver Avante Cox.
Baker is 222-for-322 this season with 2,432 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, while Cox has grabbed 42 receptions for 521 yards and seven touchdowns.
YSU, meanwhile, enjoyed a stretch in which the passing game seemed unstoppable under quarterback Mitch Davidson, but things have slowed in the last two weeks. Davidson went 11-for-23 at MSU with 117 yards, no touchdowns and was sacked on a critical fourth down play late.
Southern Illinois’ secondary, has allowed 235.1 yards per game, seventh in the MVFC.
However, as it’s been since his arrival to Youngstown, the Penguins have been bolstered by the performances of McLaughlin, who set the new NCAA career rushing record with his 227 yards last week.
“It’s definitely something that’s great because my offensive line, those guys talked about that almost day in and day out, wanting to get that for the team and wanting to get that for me,” McLaughlin said of setting the mark. “It was a bittersweet moment, because I was able to get that record, but we weren’t able to pull away with the win. But at the end of the day, you have to look at it as a blessing.”
McLaughlin competing against the SIU defense will be strength on strength, as the Salukis have given up an average of 105 yards per game, second-best in the MVFC behind South Dakota State’s average of 71.4 yards per game.
PREDICTION
There’s still plenty to fight for whether you’re Youngstown State or Southern Illinois.
The Salukis’ run defense may make things tough on McLaughlin, but Davidson and Co. should be more comfortable in alleviating the pressures on McLaughlin in a home game.
With that said, the Penguins win their finale.
Youngstown State wins, 23-20.
