Let me run this by everyone. Tell me if it makes any sense.
Scenario one: Northern Iowa beats Illinois State. Illinois State is done since they would finish 7-4 without a FBS loss. YSU and Indiana State get the league's third and fourth bids.
Scenario two: Illinois State wins and ties Northern Iowa at 6-2 (8-3.) But that puts Indiana State out and not us, and here is my reasoning. The playoff committee is not bound by head-to-head results (unless such things determine the auto bid.) Yes, Indiana State beats us by two points early in the year and has a good win against Western Kentucky. But they also would have lost all three games to the MVFC champion, NDSU, and to the two MVFC second place teams, Northern Iowa and Illinois State. If YSU does not make the playoffs, Indiana State would have NO wins over playoff teams. Conversely, YSU goes 2-1 against the three best teams in the league. Is that a compelling case for the fourth league bid, which I think will come?