Horizon League Hoops Power Rankings

[ysuindy]

The blog writer issues weekly power ratings using statistical analysis. 

I would like to use this thread to continue through the season, updating the new rankings and having room for comment.

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2011/11/21/power-rankings-week-2/

My take on his YSU comments this week : Valuing the ball, not turning it over, just can't shoot.  You have to be doing some other things well to be 3-0 while shooting 37%, no matter who you are playing.


7. (6) Youngstown State (3-0)
Efficiency margin: -4.1 (+0)

Youngstown State, ranked 211th by Pomeroy, stayed perfect with wins over non-D-I Notre Dame Ohio, 80-62, and UC-Riverside, 53-49, in overtime.
Unfortunately the Penguins aren’t making much use of their extremely effective assist-maker in Kendrick Perry, who has an assist in 25.9 of YSU’s possessions that he’s involved in, because their shots just aren’t falling. The Penguins’ 37.4 eFG% is by far the worst in the league and 374th in the nation, but they make up for it with a league-best 14.2 percent turnover rate.
Jerry Slocum almost has the right mix.

[IAA Fan]

Those 3's don't hurt Indy! Defense can be just incredible at times. It will be nice to have something like this to follow.

[ysuscuba]

Nice post.  I was looking @ stats on the Horizon League and that was the killer stats....field goal percent!! Geez.  The guins are doing well @ 4th in scoring offsense/5th in scoring defense and dead last in field goal % but 1st in Three point fg %.

[ysuindy]

Sorry - I lost track of this thread.

YSU up to 6th this week (written before the Fredonia State game)

Although I am not sure where the "deep bench" comment comes from.

In looking at Ken Pomeroy's player rankings, Blake Allen is 9th in the country in percentage of minutes played (94.7%), Kendrick Perry is 53rd and all five YSU starters rank in the top 352.

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2011/12/05/power-rankings-week-4/#more-231


6. (7) Youngstown State (5-2)
Efficiency margin: -2.7 (+1.7)

Youngstown State beat Detroit convincingly, but lost to Wright State’s patient offense by one point last week. This marks their second straight week of increased efficiency.

The Penguins are becoming a joy to watch, because with Detroit’s up-tempo offense a mangled mess, YSU has an opportunity to take over the high-paced reins. Afterall, they take care of the ball better than anyone in the league and rank eighth nationally with a turnover in just 15.4 percent of their possessions, and they have a deep, injury-free roster that can get up the floor quickly.

YSU is a few more offensive rebounds away from being a real Horizon League contender. Really.

Next: Fredonia State, Tuesday, 7:45 p.m. (Live on HLN)

[ysuindy]

Lets see if I can keep this one current too.   

Here is today's rankings

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/02/power-rankings-weeks-7-8/

Power Rankings: Weeks 7-8
BY CHRIS BURROWS ⋅ JANUARY 2, 2012 ⋅ POST A COMMENT
1. (3 last week) Butler (8-7, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: +5.9

It’s been a rapid rise for the Bulldogs, who were at No. 3 in last week’s rankings, and No. 5 in the week prior to that. Butler’s efficiency margin suffers from their inefficient start to the year. Over their last five games, in which they have wins over Purdue, Stanford, Green Bay and Milwaukee, Butler is scoring at a rate of 1.07 points per possession (significantly above their adjusted season average of 0.99), and allowing 0.94 ppp for an efficiency margin over those four games of +8.0.

What really earns Butler top honors is their come-from-behind win over Milwaukee Saturday, which is tempered only by the fact that they did it at home. Clutch freshman Kameron Woods came through again in the final seconds as he was fouled on the rebound and sank both from the stripe to lock up the win after Chase Stigall’s big go-ahead three with 20 seconds left.

Next: At Wright State, Friday, 8 p.m. CST

2. (2) Milwaukee (10-5, 3-1)
Efficiency margin: +8.1

The Panthers may have lost four of their last six, both those losses have all come to more-than-worth foes: Northern Iowa (No. 65 at Pomeroy), Marquette (No. 22), Wisconsin (No. 1) and Butler (No. 122). Milwaukee is the highest rated Horizon League representative, at No. 88 on Pomeroy’s board.

They’re doing it with the league’s most efficient defense that allows 0.91 ppp. The Panthers lead every team in the country in defending from beyond the arc (23.4 percent) and have the overall 15th best shot defense that has opponents logging a 42.4 percent eFG%.

Next: At Western Michigan, Tuesday, 6 p.m.

3. (1) Cleveland State (12-3, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: +8.2

The Vikings ended 2011 on a bad note with a 6-point loss to Youngstown State at home (and trailed by 10 points with 20 seconds to play). The Penguins exposed and took advantage of some of CSU’s weaknesses to beat the Vikings for the first time in their last six meetings to make the top of the Horizon a very confusing race.

YSU made Cleveland State lean on its players in the paint, and avoided that dangerous CSU backcourt to get to the charity stripe 11 more times for six more points. Led by Horizon League player of the week Damian Eargle’s 20-10 double-double, the Vikings were also outrebounded, 29-24 in the 63-possession loss.

How dangerous is that backcourt? D’Aundray Brown (with a steal in 5.4 percent of his opportunities) leads the league, Jeremy Montgomery (3.03 percent), Anton Grady (3.00 percent) and Trevon Harmon (2.92 percent) are all in the top 8 of the Horizon in steal percentage. The Vikings create more turnovers than anyone in the nation — one per 29.1 percent of their opponents’ possessions.

Next: vs. UIC, Thursday, 6 p.m.

4. (5) Valparaiso (9-6, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: +0.5

Valparaiso’s defense is faltering. The Crusaders have allowed their last three opponents 1.18 ppp in losses to IUPUI and Milwaukee and a win over Green Bay.

Their Horizon-best offense is what’s keeping them in the positive margin (1.06 ppp), led by Ryan Broekhoff, who leads the league in just so many categories. He has the nation’s 43rd best offensive rating (127.5).

Next: At Detroit, Friday, 6 p.m.

5. (7) Youngstown State (7-6, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: -2.4

The Penguins snapped a four-game skid with a smart road win over Cleveland State. Watch out for Damian Eargle; he has a block in 15.1 percent of his opponent’s possessions. That leads the Horizon and is fourth nationally.

The Penguins are the smoothest ballhandlers in the Horizon with a turnover in 17.1 percent of their possessions.

Next: Vs. Loyola, Thursday, 6 p.m.

6. (4) Detroit (7-9, 1-3)
Efficiency margin: +2.0

The Titans aren’t even attempting to run their tempo anymore, it seems. They split against the bottom-dwelling Chicago teams in games that were 62 and 60 possessions.

Next: Vs. Valparaiso, Friday, 6 p.m.

7. ( Wright State (8-8, 3-1)
Efficiency margin: -3.2

The Raiders got a crack at the Chicago teams last week, and won both games. Billy Donlon is on the verge of having a contending team if he can just solve WSU’s anemic (0.93 ppp) offense that can’t grab offensive boards to exacerbate their shooting problems (45.2 eFG%).

They’ve now won four in a row, and I still think 6-9 freshman Tavares Sledge deserves more minutes in the WSU frontcourt. He’s leading the team in offensive and defensive rebounding, but only gets 14 minutes per game as a reserve.

Next: Vs. Butler, Friday, 8 p.m.

8. (6) Green Bay (6-8, 2-2)
Efficiency margin: -0.3

The Phoenix ended the year with a pair of losses, to Butler and Valparaiso. Iowa-transfer Brennan Cougill is a big bright spot: He leads the Horizon in defensive rebounding with one in 26.3 percent of opponents’ possessions.

Green Bay’s tight fifth-ranked (in the Horizon) defense keeps them higher in the rankings.

Next: At Milwaukee, Saturday, 7 p.m.

9. (10) UIC (5-9, 1-3)
Efficiency margin: -10.4

The Flames upset Detroit, and almost took down Wright State in a four-point overtime loss. JUCO transfer point guard Gary Talton has emerged as UIC’s needed leader in the backcourt, and he may challenge Milwaukee’s Kaylon Williams for assists leader. Talton (33.8 percent) is second to Williams (40.7).

Next: At Cleveland State, Thursday, 6 p.m.

10. (9) Loyola (5-9, 0-4)
Efficiency margin: -9.1

One of the slowest teams the Horizon has seen in a while, Loyola picked up losses to Wright State and Detroit that weren’t really close (13.5 points average margin). Only Walt Gibler (109.5) and reserve Jonathon Gac (100.6) have offensive ratings over 100, and it looks like injuries may well ruin things on the north side.

Next: At Youngstown State, Thursday, 6 p.m.

[ysuindy]

YSU up to fourth. 

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/09/power-rankings-week-9/

Power Rankings: Week 9
BY CHRIS BURROWS ⋅ JANUARY 9, 2012 ⋅ POST A COMMENT
This is a mess.

As I wrote about on Run the Floor last week, parity is running rampant in the Horizon League. Through 27 league games, four teams are either 4-1 or 4-2, six teams are ranked between 124 and 184 in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, and the 12 games played so far that only involve those easily defined ‘top 7′ were decided by an average scoring margin of 5.1 points (although Valpo’s 18-point loss to Wright State yesterday works significantly against that figure).

At this point picking the home team is your best bet, although still, not by much. Horizon League teams are 16-11 at home in conference play. All five home teams picked up wins this past weekend (by an average margin of 14.4 points, if you were curious).

So how can I justify rankings when teams are so closely matched? Through the power of tempo-free stats. Included in this week’s rankings: justifications.

1. (3 last week) Cleveland State (14-3, 4-1 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +8.8

Justification: Trey Harmon is back (from a concussion), the Vikings have the best efficiency margin in the league (thanks to the league’s second most efficient defense and fourth most efficient offense), and CSU is one of only two teams that hasn’t lost on the road in conference play (the other being Wright State). Holy parentheticals.

Next: At Butler, Friday, 6 p.m. (CST)

2. (2) Milwaukee (11-6, 4-1)
Efficiency margin: +6.6

 Justification: While the Panthers are overall balanced and efficient, it’s their defense that’s keeping them in games. The offense is underperforming. The Panthers haven’t averaged over 1.0 points per possession in a game since they defeated D-I newcomer Nebraska-Omaha on Dec. 17. Poor shooting is mostly to blame.

The Panthers have shown welcome consistency, if nothing else, so they remain at No. 2.

Next: Vs. Wright State, Thursday, 7 p.m.

3. (1) Butler (9-8, 3-2)
Efficiency margin: +4.3

Justification: After beating Purdue and Stanford on the road, a road loss to struggling Detroit (in a low-possession game) is unacceptable. The Bulldogs trailed by 18 points with 2:15 to play, and even the Kampens got minutes. Butler has trouble keeping teams off the charity stripe, and is ranked worst in the Horizon in defensive free throw rate.

Surging Youngstown State threatens to overtake the Bulldogs.

Next: Vs. Cleveland St., Friday, 6 p.m.

4. (5) Youngstown State (9-6, 4-1)
Efficiency margin: -0.8

Justification: The Penguins pick up a spot for plenty of great reasons. Arbitrarily, they picked up their 1,000th program win last week, but, more importantly, YSU is off to their best conference start in program history. In addition to picking off Detroit and Cleveland State earlier in the season, the Penguins’ defense has now done what no other team has yet: hold UIC to 0.79 points per possession. Milwaukee (0.96 ppp) and Cleveland State (0.92) came no where near that number when they beat the Flames.

The YSU offense is picking up momentum too, and has scored better than 1.0 ppp in each of their last four games. They also lead the league in ballhandling with a nationally-ranked (seventh) average of one turnover in 16 percent of their possessions. The Penguins are for real. Only Butler’s non-con heroics keep the Penguins out of the top three — for now.

Next: At Valparaiso, Friday, 7 p.m.

5. (6) Detroit (8-10, 2-4)
Efficiency margin: +2.2

Justification: The Titans pick up a spot for running over Butler, but still have serious problems — expected for teams with just 10 players. Detroit just isn’t consisted in the paint, giving up a lot of second-chance points. LaMarcus Lowe can only block so many shots (he’s now in the top-20 in the country with a block in 11.1 percent of opponents’ possessions).

Detroit’s positive efficiency margin keeps them just above Wright State and Valparaiso.

Next: At Green Bay, Thursday, 7 p.m.

6. (7) Wright State (9-9, 4-2)
Efficiency margin: -1.8

Justification: Billy Donlon is running a defensive seminar at Wright State. Only one Horizon League team (Youngstown State) has managed to score better than 1.0 ppp against the Raiders. Butler, Valparaiso, Loyola and UIC have not been so lucky. The Raiders are also undefeated on the road. It says a lot when the No. 6 team in the rankings is this solid.

WSU moves up a spot, ahead of Valpo for taking down the Crusaders a 66-possession 18-point rout on Saturday. If their offense continues to turn around, the Raiders may challenge more teams at the top.

Next: At Milwaukee, Thursday, 7 p.m.

7. (5) Valparaiso (10-7, 3-2)
Efficiency margin: -0.4

Justification: Thanks to the league’s most inefficient defense, the Crusaders have slipped into the negative efficiency margin club. Valpo is a misfit among the teams at the top of the league: solid offense, terrible defense. That’s the opposite of the six teams ahead of them, but has lead to similar consequences. Poor shot defense (especially on the perimeter) is not helping their situation.

Next: Vs. Youngstown State, Friday, 7 p.m.

8. ( Green Bay (6-9, 2-3)
Efficiency margin: -0.1

Justification: Three straight losses to three tough teams (Butler, Milwaukee and Valpo) by one possession. The Phoenix have a top-100 defense.

Next: Vs. Detroit, Thursday, 7 p.m.

9. (9) UIC (5-11, 1-5)
Efficiency margin: -10.7

Justification: The young Flames are figuring things out still and occasionally finding the right combinations. Still, they are wildly inefficient.

Next: Vs. Loyola, Saturday, 3 p.m.

10. (10) Loyola (5-11, 0-6)
Efficiency margin: -9.6

Justification: UIC beat Detroit. Loyola took Youngstown State to overtime, but still hasn’t earned a win. Credit to Porter Moser for running a slow offense with a short roster. It’s starting to show signs of life.

Next: At UIC, Saturday, 3 p.m.

[Wick250]

It is refreshing to read such things.  But we are just not that good.  I'm afraid these same pundits will resort back to ridicule when we start to get clobbered by good, deep teams, especially on the road.  You just cannot sustain success in the Horizon League with only five players. 

[ysuindy]

Wick - I share your doubts about the lack of depth eventually catching up to YSU.  That is why last weekend was so important.  However I believe that the league as a whole is down a bit from the last few years.  I think no better than 13-5 wins the regular season, maybe even 12-6.  I look a for a big logjam between 8-10 and 10-8 in the league.

[OleYSUfan]

Indy & Wick:

I share your scepticism. We have a pretty good starting five, but what happens when Eargle gets into foul trouble against teams with good/strong inside players? This will happen and it will spell instant doom! If we go 9-9 in the Horizon that would surpass my wildest guess at the beginning of the season. Our future away games will be extremely demanding on our starting five.

I also agree the Horizon League is weak this year and a 12-8 record will win the league, but that team may lose in the Horizon tournament.

But it is sure nice to see YSU at 4-1 at this point!!

[IAA Fan]

True, we lost the 30-point differential when we put i the two's, but it was worth it ...a couple of three's came out of it. We seem to be moving more quickly on offense & we are working the boards more. I like where this is going. It may take too long to get it together, or maybe we have begun to gel ...next two games will tell.

[ysuindy]

Missed last week - life gets in the way sometimes

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/23/power-rankings-week-11/

It’s hard to believe, but we’re half-way through the Horizon League regular season. The power rankings are starting to make more sense with the top five teams tied for either first or third place in the conference standings.

Included in this week’s expanded rankings: tempo-free up-sides and down-sides for all ten teams.

1. (2 last week) Cleveland State (17-4, 7-2 Horizon League)
Record vs. top 5: 2-2
Efficiency margin: +10.5

Up-side: The Vikings proved to Milwaukee that they now have a top-100 offense (87th per Pomeroy’s rankings) to complement their already top-100 defense (81st) when they scored 1.22 points per possession vs. Milwaukee’s Horizon-best defense (43rd on Pomeroy) on Sunday. This balanced system is reflected in their impressive efficiency margin.

Still, there’s that dangerous CSU backcourt that creates a turnover on 27.2 percent of their opponent’s possessions (3rd in the nation). The Vikings are also second only to Milwaukee in guarding the three with opponents hitting 29.6 percent from range (24th nationally).

They’re 8-1 at the Wolstein Center this season. Only Youngstown State has handled the Vikings at home.

Down-side: Cleveland State struggles to get to and keep opponents off of the free throw line. In fact, the Vikings are dead-last in both categories in the Horizon League and among the eight worst teams in the nation in both. They play a physical game and pay the price. Anton Grady and Aaron Pogue both average more than 6.0 fouls called per 40 minutes.

2. (1) Milwaukee (13-8, 6-3)
Record vs. top 5: 0-3
Efficiency margin: +5.5

Up-side: The Panthers win games when their defense comes to play. Not only do they guard shots exceedingly well (25th nationally in opponent eFG%), but they also keep their opponents from getting second chances with a 59th ranked opponent offensive rebounding rate. That’s an equation for low-scoring games. Milwaukee is only allowing 0.92 ppp.

Down-side: Unfortunately, the offense hasn’t adapted to player losses nearly as well. Milwaukee has managed less than a point per trip in seven of their last nine games. The Panther’s offensive fingerprint has completely shifted since last season, and mirrors Butler’s possession-sharing system. Senior PG Kaylon Williams, the king of assists, is now the team’s leading scorer after ranking fourth a season ago.

Milwaukee has also lost six of their last seven away games, and will be on the road for five of their last six games of the season.

3. (3) Butler (12-9, 6-3)
Record vs. top 5: 2-2
Efficiency margin: +3.0

Up-side: The Bulldogs are 11-2 this season when they hold opponents to less than or equal to a point per trip, and 1-7 when they don’t. Like Milwaukee, their defense wins them games, and is limiting opponents to 0.95 ppp on average. It helps that Ron Nored seems to be continuing to grow on the court. He’s second in assist rate (33.6 percent), third in steal rate (3.91 percent) and first in free throw rate (85.5 percent) in the Horizon League.

Down-side: Shooting. It seems as simple as that. The Bulldogs are worst in the League from range (28.1 percent), second-worst from the stripe (61.6 percent) and third-worst in overall eFG% (44.9) for a combined 0.98 ppp.

4. (5) Valparaiso (14-7, 7-2)
Record vs. top 5: 3-1
Efficiency margin: +2.6

Up-side: Since the start of the season, Valparaiso has been the one Horizon League team winning games with their offense, which is currently pegged at a league-best 1.07 ppp. Led by impressive sharp-shooting from Ryan Broekhoff and Will Bogan, the Crusaders have a combined effective field goal percentage (53.9 percent) that ranks 24th nationally. They hit two-pointers at an untouchable rate (57.2 percent) that is second in the nation only to Missouri.

There may be no more formidable front court duo in mid-major hoops than Ryan Broekhoff and Kevin Van Wijk.

Down-side: Similar to Butler and Milwaukee, Valpo has significant down-side, but it’s their defense, which is allowing 1.05 ppp. Weaknesses include an inability to create turnovers and shot-defense. Bryce Drew’s young backcourt is trying to sort these things out.

5. (6) Youngstown State (11-8, 6-3)
Record vs. top 5: 2-2
Efficiency margin: +0.3

Up-side: The Penguins are proving that tight ballhandling and threatening perimeter offense can win games. YSU leads the league in turnover rate with one in 16.8 percent of their possessions, and three-point shooting (38.6 percent). It doesn’t hurt that HLPOTW Blake Allen went 10-of-13 from three on the week in YSU’s two wins that propel YSU into the ranks of the teams with positive efficiency margins for the first time.

Down-side: At 1.04 ppp the Youngstown State offense could use more support. They just aren’t much of a threat in the post, and Damian Eargle has single-handedly kept the Penguins’ defense from falling apart with a ridiculous amount of blocks (the fourth best rate in the nation). YSU allows 1.04 ppp on the defensive end, and that’s too much.

6. (4) Detroit (10-11, 4-5)
Record vs. top 5: 1-4
Efficiency margin: +2.2

Up-side: As predicted the Titans’ offense packs a still-high-tempo (68.1 possessions per game) punch. They threaten from every corner of the front court and score 1.06 ppp.

Down-side: The Detroit backcourt isn’t pulling its share of the load. Worst shot-defense in the league, worst at defending the three and second-worst at shooting threes (29.3 percent). The Titans were the best three-point shooting team in the league a season ago (37.9 percent) with essentially the same lineup. What happened?

7. (7) Green Bay (7-12, 3-6)
Record vs. top 5: 0-5
Efficiency margin: -4.9

Up-side: Alec Brown (7-1) and Brennan Cougill (6-9) are an emerging frontcourt force in Green Bay. Both rank among the top nine defensive rebounders in the league, and have led the Phoenix to a league-best inside-the-arc shot-defense (44.2 percent).

Down-side: Still, Green Bay is falling prey to lots of steals and the league’s worst turnover rate that is limiting their offense to 0.96 points per trip.

8. ( Wright State (9-12, 4-5)
Record vs. top 5: 2-3
Efficiency margin: -4.9

Up-side: There’s lots of defensive upside for WSU, which is home to the league’s third most efficient D. The Raiders create a league-best turnover in 26.5 percent of their opponents’ possessions in league play, and are second in limiting offensive rebounds (28.6 percent).

Down-side: Unfortunately their anemic offense outweighs their terrific defense. The Raiders rank seventh in all four offensive factors (OR%, eFG%, TO% and free throw rate).

9. (9) UIC (6-13, 2-7)
Record vs. top 5: 0-5
Efficiency margin: -11.1

Up-side: The Flames are the league’s third-best shot-defending team, and second-best at defending the three, but their defense isn’t especially strong at 1.03 ppp allowed. Darrin Williams has kept the Flames near the top in offensive rebounding rate (one in 34.8 percent of their possessions as a team in conference play).

Down-side: Daniel Barnes is a microcosm of the Flame’s offense. He’s shooting well from range (32.4 percent), and not well inside the arc (42.6 pecent). UIC is third as a team from three, and dead-last from two-point range.

10. (10) Loyola (5-14, 0-9)
Record vs. top 5: 0-5
Efficiency margin: -14.0

Up-side: Walt Gibler and Ben Averkamp. Bless their hearts. They are doing so many big things (ranked in 15 categories combined nationally), but two players a team does not make.

Down-side: The Ramblers have the league’s worst offensive and defensive efficiencies. It’s been a trying, injury-riddled season in Rogers Park.

[ysuindy]

These rankings lose credibility this week. 

8 days after YSU beats Green Bay by 30 (77-47), that's right 30 points, they are ranked behind Green Bay.   YSU also ahead of Green Bay by 1 1/2 games in the league standings and has a better efficiency rating than Green Bay.

No justification at all.


http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/30/week-12-horizon-league-powers-rankings-in-haiku/

Because, BracketBusters.
Green Bay did big things this week
One point one six ppp.

The Phoenix, top five
Beat Butler and Drew at home
Late surge for young team?

The Chicago teams
Gave Donlon and McCallum
Empty wins: no Gibler.

Offensive rebounds
were the difference for Valpo
beat Panthers on road (other three factors basically even, the Crusaders had 6.5 percent more offensive rebounds per possession that  gave them a 10-15 second-chance points advantage in the 55-52 otherwise very defensive win).

CSU is clear
favorite. Pomeroy says
Vikings won’t lose again.

1. (1 last week) Cleveland State (18-4, 8-2 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +12.2

2. (4) Valparaiso (15-8, 8-3)
Efficiency margin: +2.1

3. (2) Milwaukee (14-9, 7-4)
Efficiency margin: +5.5

4. (3) Butler (12-11, 6-5)
Efficiency margin: +1.4

5. (7) Green Bay (9-12, 5-6)
Efficiency margin: -2.2

6. (5) Youngstown State (11-9, 6-4)
Efficiency margin: -1.4

7. (6) Detroit (12-11, 6-5)
Efficiency margin: +1.7

8. ( Wright State (11-12, 6-5)
Efficiency margin: -5.3

9. (9) UIC (6-15, 2-9)
Efficiency margin: -10.4

10. (10) Loyola (5-16, 0-11)
Efficiency margin: -14.0

[ysuindy]

Something tells me this week's comment may generate some discussion here. 

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/02/06/power-rankings-week-13/

I’ve used adjusted efficiency margin all season as a core metric for ranking the Horizon League’s teams without really explaining why. These figures are calculated using Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that essentially measure how many points a team scores per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency) and how many points a team allows per 100 possessions (defensive efficiency) but is weighted for factors such as road or home and recent wins or losses.

Subtracting these numbers gives the adjusted efficiency margin (i.e. 105.8 points scored per 100 Cleveland State possessions – 91.7 points allowed per 100 Cleveland State’s opponents’ possessions = +14.1 points margin). Teams that score more points than they allow, as in the Cleveland State example, have a positive efficiency margin. Teams that don’t are in the negative. This removes the variable of game pace from the stats and puts all teams on a level field for comparison.

As the season progresses, the sample sizes increase and a clearer image of where the Horizon’s teams stand becomes available: Cleveland State is clearly on top. Take a look.

(Note - I can't cut and paste the chart - you will need to click the link)

This chart clearly illustrates the full season of efficiency by Cleveland State that is only becoming more exaggerated and isolated from the group, the gradual rise of Youngstown State, the fall of Butler into mediocrity, and Milwaukee’s troubles of late. Valparaiso just is.

1. (1 last week) Cleveland State (20-4, 10-2 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +14.1

The Vikings didn’t miss D’Aundray Brown much over the weekend with easy wins over the Chicago teams, but they’ll miss his league-leading steal rate (one steal in 5.7 percent of opponents’ possessions) when Valpo comes to town looking for a season sweep on Thursday. Gary Waters said Brown is questionable.

Freshman 6-8 phenom Anton Grady would likely start again in Brown’s spot in the re-worked less guard-heavy lineup that actually could work in CSU’s favor against frontcourt heavyweights Kevin Van Wijk and Ryan Broekhoff. Pomeroy heavily favors the Vikings to snag the split with 86 percent.

With the 20-win plateau now in the rear-view mirror, the Vikes are back to getting votes in both top-25 polls.

2. (2) Valparaiso (17-8, 10-3)
Efficiency margin: +2.3

The Crusaders showed once again that their offense is susceptible to teams that are disruptive in the backcourt and grab a greater number of offensive boards. While Valpo beat Wright State (this time around), their offense struggled as it did last time around. Combined, the Crusaders’ offense (which averages 1.06 points per possessions) has scored 0.89 ppp against Wright State, a defense which shares characteristics of CSU’s D.

3. (3) Milwaukee (15-10, 8-5)
Efficiency margin: +4.2

The Panthers have attempted 555 three-point field goals (22.2 per game). That’s tops in the League and 16th-most in the nation. Almost a quarter of those attempts (22.5 percent) have come during Milwaukee’s recent slump (they lost four of their last six). Oh yeah, and the Panthers have the 253rd best 3pt% in the nation at 32.3 percent. Stick to assists, Kaylon Williams.

4. (7) Detroit (13-12, 7-6)
Efficiency margin: +1.8

Is Detroit (finally) heating up? They’ve won six of their last eight, and held Butler to 0.87 ppp in a characteristic 70-possession road win. This team is beginning to exude confidence. Take note, all other teams.

5. (6) Youngstown State (13-10, 8-5)
Efficiency margin: +0.2

It’s a hard case to make that the Penguins are ready for prime time. They looked ill-prepared for UIC’s offensive system in last week’s road loss in Chicago. All the pieces are there, and YSU has the second most efficient offense in league play (1.06 ppp), but leadership and intangibles just seem to be missing from the picture.

Is Jerry’s time up? I say next season is make or break for him.

6. (4) Butler (13-12, 7-6)
Efficiency margin: +0.8

There’s a reason Rotnei Clarke is always on the screen when Butler plays, even though he’s not in uniform and can’t play. The Bulldogs have the worst shooting in the Horizon and are ranked 317th in eFG% among all teams. They are the fourth-worst team in basketball (341st) at shooting from behind the arc. It really seems as simple as that. You can’t score points if you can’t hit shots. Clarke (and Kellen Dunham) changes that next season.

7. (5) Green Bay (9-13, 5-7)
Efficiency margin: -2.9

Alec Brown and Brennan Cougill are an imposing frontcourt force, but for some reason that isn’t translating on the defensive end. Opponents are still grabbing a league-worst offensive rebound in 36.5 percent of chances, while the Phoenix are only getting one in 30.0 percent. Still lots of growing to do in Green Bay.

8. ( Wright State (11-14, 6-7)
Efficiency margin: -6.3

The Raiders are now causing more turnovers in league play than any other team, but the offense has a long way to go.

9. (9) UIC (7-16, 3-10)
Efficiency margin: -12.1

Gary Talton is taking control of his offense more, and Daniel Barnes is a superb outside shooter, but there are plenty of growing pains for the Flames.

10. (10) Loyola (5-18, 0-13)
Efficiency margin: -16.0

Even with Walt Gibler back in the lineup the Ramblers are struggling to score or stop scoring. Even their shortened roster doesn’t account for a troubling 43.9 percent eFG%.

[ysuindy]

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/02/13/power-rankings-week-14/

Power Rankings: Week 14
BY CHRIS BURROWS ⋅ FEBRUARY 13, 2012 ⋅ POST A COMMENT
With the league’s consensus bottom two teams — Loyola and UIC — out of the rotation last week (they played each other), competition for the other eight teams was fierce.

In this week’s rankings: Stats that speak.

1. (2 last week) Valparaiso (18-9, 11-4 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +3.3

The Crusaders’ loss at Youngstown State Saturday is considered moot because VU was without three players from their eight-man rotation, including centerpiece Kevin Van Wijk — who was nursing a knee injury.

Stat that speaks: Valpo held Cleveland State to a season-worst 0.67 points per trip in their 59-41 win Thursday. Credit the perfected Broekhoff-Van Wijk post double-team system.

2. (1) Cleveland State (20-6, 10-4)
Efficiency margin: +10.8

Freshman Anton Grady is doing insane things as a starter (game-high 18 points to go with 13 boards and  2 blocks vs. Butler Saturday), but the Vikings’ shooters are starting to go cold. They lost two in a row for the first time all season. Doesn’t help that CSU puts teams at the free throw line a lot.

Stat that speaks: The Vikings launched 102 shots in their two games last week and made 32 (31.3 percent).

3. (4) Detroit (15-12, 9-6)
Efficiency margin: +1.6

I hate using the word “swagger.” But if there’s a team in the Horizon with “swagger” right now, it’s Detroit. Back-to-back comeback wins against the Wisconsin teams have the Titans winning eight of their last 10. They’re looking more confident than they have all season.

Stat that speaks: Combined, Detroit outscored Green Bay and Milwaukee 30-17 in the final five minutes of last week’s games.

4. (6) Butler (15-12, 9-6)
Efficiency margin: +2.8

The Bulldogs are one of only two HL teams that picked up two wins last week. Brad Stevens seems to be making some key adjustments, and Khyle Marshall is back.

Stat that speaks: It seems as though Stevens is successfully adjusting the BU offense to account for their poor long-range shooting. Only 24 of Butler’s 104 field goal attempts in two games last week was from behind the arc (23.1 percent). Down from 34.2 percent 3PA/FGA average over the season.

5. (5) Youngstown State (14-11, 9-6)
Efficiency margin: +0.4

The ‘Guins lost to Butler and beat out a mangled Valparaiso lineup, so they stay right here.

Stat that speaks: Combined, Butler and Valpo had seven steals against YSU in their games last week in 133 total possessions (5.26 percent steal rate). That’s how solid the ‘Guins backcourt is at handling the ball. Some perspective: Cleveland State’s D’Aundray Brown alone gets a steal in a league-best 5.35 percent of his opponents’ possessions.

6. (3) Milwaukee (15-12, 8-7)
Efficiency margin: +2.1

Tailspin? The Panthers dropped both games (on the road at Detroit and Wright State), and have lost six of their last eight.

Stat that speaks: Detroit went 0-13 from three against Milwaukee (season-best for Mil), Wright State went 7-10 (season-worst). Inconsistent?

7. (7) Green Bay (10-14, 6-8)
Efficiency margin: -1.8

The Phoenix did what Milwaukee couldn’t last week: beat Wright State on the road, but they still have some kinks to work out that seem to come from the short bench.

Stat that speaks: Detroit (18-42) and Wright State (14-28) shot a combined 45.7 percent from inside the arc against UWGB. That’s impressive for the young defense.

8. ( Wright State (12-15, 7-8)
Efficiency margin: -4.4

Wright State is a team of weird disparities. Terrible second-worst-in-league-play offense (0.94 ppp) and solid second-best-in-league-play defense (0.93 ppp).

Stat that speaks: The Raiders lead the league in turnover creation, with one in 27.1 percent of their opponents’ possession in league play.

9. (10) Loyola (6-18, 1-13)
Efficiency margin: -15.4

As Scott Powers writes, it’s been more than a tough season for Porter Moser in his first season at Loyola. But they beat the Flames for their first Horizon League win of the season to temporarily move up a spot in the rankings.

Stat that speaks: When Ben Averkamp and Walt Gibler are both on the floor (which happens quite a bit), they end up with the ball in their hands 54.9 percent of the time.

10. (9) UIC (7-17, 3-11)
Efficiency margin: -12.8

With the Loyola loss the Flames have yet to win on the road this season. That’s no good for morale. Still, they’ve scored better than a point per trip in five of their last six games. That’s improvement.

Stat that speaks: Six of UIC’s top seven possession-earners turn the ball over more than one in every five chances. Marc Brown (18.5 percent TO rate) is the exception.