The month of November

[IAA Fan]

Well. Here it is ...one more week & then the gauntlet. Issues that upset me:

1) UNI will be healthy by the time we go there & will be out of the play-off mix.

2. SD is playing very well & was never in the play-off mix.

3. SDSU is still the best team in the conference (at least on offense).

On the bright side:

1) NDSU is not as strong as they have been over the past couple of years. SIU did well against them until the Saluki QB went down.


Too early for predictions?

[HappyPenguin]

Whats with the love affair this year with SDSU? If you shut Zenner down they lose. And people have been beating them regularly.

SDSU is....
6th in conference in scoring
8th in passing
8th in rushing
5th in total offense...

They are dead last in total defense

http://www.mvc.org/football/stats/team.pdf

[ValleyTalk]

3. SDSU is still the best team in the conference (at least on offense).

How on God's green earth do you think SDSU is the best team in the conference after losing 4 of their last 5 games!?

[Spiderlegs]

I'm thinking the stats this season are deceptive.  There appears to be parity emerging in the conference--NDSU and everybody else. The wild card is YSU and whether they are more like NDSU or like the rest of the pack.
 
By the way, the wave of upsets may have a huge consequence for the conference when playoff teams are selected.  If YSU beats SD and loses the last three (a distinct possibility), then NDSU will be the only team in the conference with less than four losses--highly unlikely that the MVFC sends four teams if this occurs. I doubt that the argument that the MVFC is the toughest conference will overcome that.

[Wick250]

Spiderlegs,

Agree.  But scanning over the schedules, it looks like most of the power conferences will also have third and fourth place teams with four losses.  Question becomes this: will the NCAA put the best 24 teams in the tournament, or will they dilute it with weaker teams from minor conferences that finish with better records?

[ysuguins4]

1) UNI will be healthy by the time we go there & will be out of the play-off mix.


3. SDSU is still the best team in the conference (at least on offense).

Fan,

1) With wins over Iowa State and McNeese, UNI won't be out of the playoff mix until they have 5 losses.

3) Take a look at the MVFC stats for conference games only.  They are better for comparative purposes.  SDSU has issues with their Oline.  Dead last in rushing and only averaging 2.4 yards per carry.  They have also given up the most sacks (19) in conference play.

[ItalianPenguin]

1-aa I respect all you do with the site and love that you're a die-hard Penguin fan but, dude, you come off the top of the wall with some of your statements. SDSU the best team in the conference?? Sir, you do realize the 2-time defending national champions and number one team in the country resides in our conference and it is not named South Dakota St., don't you??

[DavedS]

Well. Here it is ...one more week & then the gauntlet. Issues that upset me:

1) UNI will be healthy by the time we go there & will be out of the play-off mix.

2. SD is playing very well & was never in the play-off mix.

3. SDSU is still the best team in the conference (at least on offense).

On the bright side:

1) NDSU is not as strong as they have been over the past couple of years. SIU did well against them until the Saluki QB went down.


Too early for predictions?

UNI will not be healthy until next year--they have had @ least 18 players injured this year--6 out for the year amongst them is Jake Farley the coach's son and heart of their defense.I know back in 2008 when UNI was ranked #5 we had more players than that injured and our qb was hurt and could barely run and we still only lost by one point--I thought we would lose by @ least 50. Coach Farley has said that there are other big injuries that will be announced later this week.Hope you are correct about NDSU being not as strong--I never thought so but hopefully its true--they are the best in FCS no doubt but they aren't invincible.

[ysufan0505]

SDSU is very overrated. UNI is banged up all together as a team. South Dakota will be interesting but I think our offense will be too much.... NDSU is well.... The best team lol

[ysuguins4]

I didn't know UNI was that banged up.  As Fan suggested, they may be out of the playoffs by the time we play them.  They have road games at SDSU and ILSU, before coming home to play us.

[IAA Fan]

1) UNI will be healthy by the time we go there & will be out of the play-off mix.


3. SDSU is still the best team in the conference (at least on offense).

Fan,

1) With wins over Iowa State and McNeese, UNI won't be out of the playoff mix until they have 5 losses.

3) Take a look at the MVFC stats for conference games only.  They are better for comparative purposes.  SDSU has issues with their Oline.  Dead last in rushing and only averaging 2.4 yards per carry.  They have also given up the most sacks (19) in conference play.

They still have two more games before us & I think they will drop at least one. I hope what David says is true about the injuries being season-long.

Great research on SDSU ...I am feeling a bit more confident.

[GOpenZ]

Remaining schedule:
South Dakota - I agree with 05 that our offense should outburst and outlast South Dakota.
uni - Appears beat up.  Remember we got the monkey off our back last year.  They no longer "own" us.
Bizon - Obviously they are the best team in the country and for good reason.  They know how to win, and how to win in the toughest FCS conference.  We are the last team to beat them, and other than beating ourselves, we have another good shot at competing and winning at home in front of Coach Tressel.
SDSU - Zenner has not played up to expectations, but SDSU is still a strong team and could pull out some wins this year spoil some playoffs for unsuspecting teams.

Generally, we are favored in two remaining games by a TD and underdogs in two remaining games by a TD.  I expect that they should all be competitive games.

Z

[penguinpower]

Remaining schedule:
South Dakota - I agree with 05 that our offense should outburst and outlast South Dakota.
uni - Appears beat up.  Remember we got the monkey off our back last year.  They no longer "own" us.
Bizon - Obviously they are the best team in the country and for good reason.  They know how to win, and how to win in the toughest FCS conference.  We are the last team to beat them, and other than beating ourselves, we have another good shot at competing and winning at home in front of Coach Tressel.
SDSU - Zenner has not played up to expectations, but SDSU is still a strong team and could pull out some wins this year spoil some playoffs for unsuspecting teams.

Generally, we are favored in two remaining games by a TD and underdogs in two remaining games by a TD.  I expect that they should all be competitive games.

Z

Where did you get the info that we are favored in 2 games?

[Wick250]

I can't believe that I am writing these words, given our historic ineptness in the UNI dome, but it is probably a good thing that our final two road games are in domed stadiums.  Hess struggled so badly with the rain and the strong cross-wind, and that leveled the odds for Western Illinois.  Perfect playing conditions will force South Dakota and an apparently battered UNI to stop our offense without any assistance from Mother Nature.

Let's see how the South Dakota offense performs in Normal against Illinois State this week.  Historically, ISU is much better at home than on the road.  As for our friends from UNI, they go to Brookings this week, then to Normal before they come home to face us.  0-5 in the conference might be unlikely but not impossible.  Would that be a good or bad thing for us?

[GOpenZ]

Remaining schedule:
South Dakota - I agree with 05 that our offense should outburst and outlast South Dakota.
uni - Appears beat up.  Remember we got the monkey off our back last year.  They no longer "own" us.
Bizon - Obviously they are the best team in the country and for good reason.  They know how to win, and how to win in the toughest FCS conference.  We are the last team to beat them, and other than beating ourselves, we have another good shot at competing and winning at home in front of Coach Tressel.
SDSU - Zenner has not played up to expectations, but SDSU is still a strong team and could pull out some wins this year spoil some playoffs for unsuspecting teams.

Generally, we are favored in two remaining games by a TD and underdogs in two remaining games by a TD.  I expect that they should all be competitive games.

Z

Where did you get the info that we are favored in 2 games?

Sorry, I know I should be footnoting and referencing all my data.  I am loosely using the one TD as the difference in all of the games.  But generally the computers, including the massey ratings and sagarin ratings linked below have us beating both South Dakota Squads by a TD.

http://www.masseyratings.com/pred.php?s=cf&sub=11605&dt=20131029
http://www.masseyratings.com/pred.php?s=cf&sub=11605&dt=20131119
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/team/

Z