As a casual observer, I would put the odds at 70% Akron, 20% YSU, and 10% something else.
I have different take on this. The two other finalists in Akron are very strong and are from the academic side. The faculty union was quoted to be not in favor of Tressel. The faculty in Akron just received a 6% paid raise last year. It showed you their influence on the administration.
However, at YSU, one of the finalist has lots of issues at SOU and the other one is also a finalist at another institution. The faculty at YSU has been neutral on Tressel and the faculty carries no weight at all for this board (the academic senate recommended to the BOT to include a faculty from each college to join the search committee and the faculty were totally excluded). Therefore, the faculty is not a factor here at YSU.
The Youngstown community has been very supportive for Tressel. I am sure the BOT is aware of the of this. If Tressel can raise funds for YSU and attract students, it might get YSU out of the financial problems. On the academic side, I think he will hire a strong provost to run the academic side of the university.
I think the odds are 20% Akron, 50% YSU and 30% others.
If he received offers from both schools, it will be 70% Akron since he is working there. If he chooses YSU, it is because of the community support which makes his fund raising easier and because YSU's long term debt situation is better than Akron.
We will find out next week.