MVFC Playoff Outlook

[seanbryan3]

That Illinois was the toughest loss to me.. Should have beaten that illinois team..

[IAA Fan]

Okay here me out long post, but I wanted some facts. Here are your current standings:       

 North Dakota State   5-1   9-1
   Illinois State      5-1   8-1
   Youngstown State   4-2   7-3
   Northern Iowa      4-2   6-4
   Indiana State      3-3   6-4
   South Dakota State   3-3   6-4
   Southern Illinois   3-3   6-4
   Western Illinois   2-4   4-6
   Missouri State      1-5   4-6
   South Dakota      0-6   2-8

Here are your most-likely results this coming week:

11/15/2014
Illinois State at South Dakota *    Vermillion, SD    1:00 p.m.
Indiana State at Youngstown State *    Youngstown, OH    1:00 p.m. MyYTV (taped)
North Dakota State at Missouri State *    Springfield, MO    2:00 p.m. NBC ND
UNI at Southern Illinois *    Carbondale, IL    2:00 p.m. MVFC TV
Western Illinois at South Dakota State *    Brookings, SD    2:00 p.m.

11/15 most-likely:
NDSU over SMS ( we had better hope)                    Leaving them at 6-1/9-1
ILS over USD (again we had can hope)                   Leaving them at 6-1/9-1
YSU over ISU (we lose that we deserve the crowd sizes) Leaving us at 5-2/8-3
SDSU over WIU (this is still an outstanding Bunny club) Leaving them at 4-3/7-4
UNI over SIU (in the zone, and unstoppable)           Leaving them at 5-2/7-4
ISU under YSU                                          Leaving them at 3-4/6-5
SIU under UNI (I will stop short of calling for 2 upsets in 1 week, but I will say "I told you so".
                                                       Leaving them at 3-4/6-5

So after next weeked, the MVFC has these teams left in the hunt for the post-season:
1. NDSU
2. ILS
3. YSU
4. SDSU
5. UNI

The committee is still looking a way to include UNI, but I do not see them taking 5 from
one conference to get the Panthers. YSU was left at home the year we beat NDSU. Besides, I still think UNI stumbles. Either way, YSU is safe. The natural break is to take the top-3, just after YSU, but the committee will hold to see what happens in the final week with UNI.


11/22/2014
Southern Illinois at Illinois State *    Normal, IL    1:00 p.m. Comcast Chicago
Indiana State at Western Illinois *    Macomb, IL    1:00 p.m. WIU-TV3
South Dakota at South Dakota State *    Brookings, SD    2:00 p.m.
Youngstown State at North Dakota State *    Fargo, ND    2:30 p.m. NBC ND/E3
Missouri State at UNI *    Cedar Falls, IA    4:00 p.m. Panther Sports Net


NDSU over YSU (my gut says Guins win)                  Leaving them at 7-1/10-1
ILS over SIU (again my gut says otherwise)             Leaving them at 7-1/10-1
UNI over SMS                                           Leaving them at 6-2/8-4
YSU under NDSU                                         Leaving them at 5-3/8-4
SDSU over USD (upset nose tingling here)               Leaving them at 5-3/8-4

1. ILS
2. NDSU
3. UNI
4. YSU
5. SDSU

They get UNI a more-deserving UNI into the post-season while only taking 3 from the MVFC. For YSU to make it, you have make the HUGE assumption that they want 4 teams and will take YSU (leaving SDSU at home because of the head-to-head win). Or the even more HUGE assumption they will take 5 teams because both YSU and SDSU will have the same record.

Again this assumes the favorites win in each game for the next 2 weeks & I do not see it.

[ValleyTalk]

IAAFan, we all know too well about curses. We have the curse of the UNI Dome. UNI has the curse of Carbondale. I definitely think SIU can win and will win on Saturday vs. UNI.

SIU and UNI each share the same record and this game is in Carbondale where UNI has not won since 1996. I understand they are hot, but if you look at some of the results in this 8 game losing streak at SIU, they have blown games just like YSU has.

Now I am getting a good laugh at the SDSU fans trying to justify having SDSU get in over YSU if we end up with the same record. Some are making the statement that the committee will factor in Sumner not starting for them against us. However, it didn't seem to hurt them when they beat ranked Cal Poly and UNI earlier this year with their backup QB!!!

[Penguin Nation]

IAA--

I agree with you that if the MVFC is limited to 2 at-large bids, than YSU would be out.  The feeble OOC schedule of YSU would give UNI the edge.

Last year, the BSC received three at-large bids.  I do believe that the MVFC will get likely three at-large bids this year (maybe four), and YSU will get in.

I cannot express how stupid I think the 2-3 "weenie" games are.  It is scheduling malpractice.  The fans don't like em, the selection committee don't like em, and they don't prepare us for league play.  Just have one so everyone gets to play, and have fun wailing away at a small school making them your b---- for a few hours. 

[mvfc penguin]

At least 4 teams from the MVFC are DEFINITELY going to playoffs this year...

Only thing is that the playoff selection committee does not want there to be an all-MVFC semifinal and eventual championship, because they know that will happen because every week in the MVFC is a playoff game, something no other conference can challenge. At the end of the day, the best teams need to make the playoffs no matter what conference they are from. If they could, I'm sure they would take more teams from the MVFC but they do not want what I just said to happen.

On another note, watch for the MVFC to expand with at least 2 more teams in the next couple of years. They will actually be the SEC of FCS football with an East and a West division.

[IAA Fan]

IAA--

I agree with you that if the MVFC is limited to 2 at-large bids, than YSU would be out.  The feeble OOC schedule of YSU would give UNI the edge.

Last year, the BSC received three at-large bids.  I do believe that the MVFC will get likely three at-large bids this year (maybe four), and YSU will get in.

I cannot express how stupid I think the 2-3 "weenie" games are.  It is scheduling malpractice.  The fans don't like em, the selection committee don't like em, and they don't prepare us for league play.  Just have one so everyone gets to play, and have fun wailing away at a small school making them your b---- for a few hours.

I hope that you are right on the first part. I actually do not agree with your last paragraph and here is where I am coming from:

I believe that it is the job of the NCAA to make certain that representation is equal. In fact I actually believe there should be exactly equal representation (in the post-season) from each region and conference. Now even if you do not agree with me on that, you would still have to believe the NCAA is going to everything in it's power to encourage larger clubs to play the partial and non-scholarship teams. If for no other reason then we are a good pay-day for them. One of the ways the NCAA has to shed "favor" on these teams that schedule the so-called "weenie games" is to apply more weight to this in the play-off selection process.

[ysufan0505]

Win this week coupled with a UNI loss either this week or next and were in. No doubt about it.

[Spiderlegs]

There will be some 8-4 teams in the playoffs. My opinion is that YSU must beat ISU and then have a strong game against NDSU, but YSU can lose to NDSU as long as its close. If YSU plays this year's last game like last year's last game, it is out regardless the  8 wins.

It's worth noting the conference teams are falling out of the polls as they lose games. At the end of the season, I'm not sure the selection committee will be saying that YSU has four quality wins--more like one or two.

Remember: This is a nine-win team if it had beaten WIU.  Can't blame the selection committee for the problems of a team that rarely plays a complete game.

[HappyPenguin]

There will be some 8-4 teams in the playoffs. My opinion is that YSU must beat ISU and then have a strong game against NDSU, but YSU can lose to NDSU as long as its close. If YSU plays this year's last game like last year's last game, it is out regardless the  8 wins.

It's worth noting the conference teams are falling out of the polls as they lose games. At the end of the season, I'm not sure the selection committee will be saying that YSU has four quality wins--more like one or two.

Remember: This is a nine-win team if it had beaten WIU.  Can't blame the selection committee for the problems of a team that rarely plays a complete game.

Yep we have a turd game like WIU every year, then try to blame the committee.

Are we in the best conference?
Sure

Does the committee overlook some of our teams to ensure the major conferences are all represented with several teams?
Yes. This is in their best interest, has nothing to do with the teams themselves, its business.

[Penguin Nation]

Interesting read about still-viable teams in each conference and the scenarios they face to achieve a spot in the post-season.  Apparently YSU can still get the auto-bid!


http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-conference-championship-and-playoff-picture-119/

[Penguin Nation]

Are we in the best conference?
Sure

Does the committee overlook some of our teams to ensure the major conferences are all represented with several teams?
Yes. This is in their best interest, has nothing to do with the teams themselves, its business.

This is the truth.....and why MVFC membership for YSU is nonsensical.  If we were a Dakota team, then there would be travel and rivalry justifications. 

If the MVFC expands and poaches teams from other conferences...then fan interest and the travel budget would improve....could you imagine the impact of renewing the rivalry with Delaware?  However, MVFC expansion will unlikely solve the anti-MVFC bias by the selection committee.  I still think moving the MVFC to the FBS makes sense.

[HappyPenguin]

Are we in the best conference?
Sure

Does the committee overlook some of our teams to ensure the major conferences are all represented with several teams?
Yes. This is in their best interest, has nothing to do with the teams themselves, its business.

This is the truth.....and why MVFC membership for YSU is nonsensical.  If we were a Dakota team, then there would be travel and rivalry justifications. 

If the MVFC expands and poaches teams from other conferences...then fan interest and the travel budget would improve....could you imagine the impact of renewing the rivalry with Delaware?  However, MVFC expansion will unlikely solve the anti-MVFC bias by the selection committee.  I still think moving the MVFC to the FBS makes sense.

The entire conference in the FBS would be great, hadn't thought about that.

I'd love a MVFC vs. MAC challenge series like you see in basketball. Every year one of our teams plays one of theirs, see which conference comes out on top.

With the arrival of the 4 team playoff conferences like the MAC are pretty much meaningless also-rans. Same as they always were really, but the feel-good story of a team like NIU making a BCS bowl are over. Its top 4 now...and everyone else. Those 3 games will have way more interest than the bowls.

We'd actually be losing out as dedicated fans by not competing for a NC, but the potential schedule would be much more appealing to the casual fan. Extra TV money for those goofy mid week games on ESPN wouldn't hurt either.

[Spiderlegs]

Does the committee overlook some of our teams to ensure the major conferences are all represented with several teams?

I don't think that the committee intentionally overlooks MVFC.  The standards seem to change from one year to the next, but consistently some measure of wins is the first concern. Strength of schedule and how a team closes its season come up as secondary matters. The committee does not feel obligated to spread out evenly by conference. Last season YSU lost out on the secondary matters.

[penguinpower]

Does the committee overlook some of our teams to ensure the major conferences are all represented with several teams?

I don't think that the committee intentionally overlooks MVFC.  The standards seem to change from one year to the next, but consistently some measure of wins is the first concern. Strength of schedule and how a team closes its season come up as secondary matters. The committee does not feel obligated to spread out evenly by conference. Last season YSU lost out on the secondary matters.

According to Dale Lennon there is an agenda.  Listen to the last 1/3.

http://soundcloud.com/mikereis-siu


I agree with him completely.

[ValleyTalk]

Does the committee overlook some of our teams to ensure the major conferences are all represented with several teams?

I don't think that the committee intentionally overlooks MVFC.  The standards seem to change from one year to the next, but consistently some measure of wins is the first concern. Strength of schedule and how a team closes its season come up as secondary matters. The committee does not feel obligated to spread out evenly by conference. Last season YSU lost out on the secondary matters.

According to Dale Lennon there is an agenda.  Listen to the last 1/3.

http://soundcloud.com/mikereis-siu


I agree with him completely.

I just hope WHEN the MVFC gets 4 teams in they all win in the 1st round and make noise this year. It is one thing to talk about the regular season, it will really shut up the haters if you dominate in the playoffs!